Julian Strawther: The Perfect Fit?
Taking a look at Julian Strawther's game, and what he could provide day one for the Nuggets.
Julian Strawther has caught the attention of many after averaging an impressive 17.8 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 1.3 assists on 69.1% TS over four preseason games. The elite spot-up shooting demonstrated at Gonzaga seems to already be translating into his pro games. Strawther shot 45.2% 3pt on 7.8 attempts, making him the only rookie to shoot ≥40% 3pt on 6 attempts or more.
Looking back at his final year with Gonzaga, Strawther excelled as Gonzaga’s primary play-finisher and spacer. He shot 37.5% 3pt off-screens, 46.7% 3pt on handoffs, and 44.9% 3pt on spot-ups. Overall an incredibly effective shooter off-ball. With Gonzaga’s star center Drew Timme looking to score primarily out of post-ups, placing Strawther on the strong-side wing kept defenses from hard doubling/trapping. Strawther provided tangible floor-spacing.
Off-Screens:
Handoffs:
Spot Ups:
Strawther’s shooting efficiency declined as a ball-handler, but his ball-handling and shot creation sustained with increased on-ball reps. His scalability as a scorer was a big part of Gonzaga’s regular and postseason success.
Despite his elite scoring utility, Strawther is stymied by his connective awareness. Top programs began to hard hedge/blitz Strawther in the PnR, forcing him off the three point line. This also cornered Strawther into passing. Strawther was not a strong live-dribble passer. In these possessions, he’d often pick up his dribble before passing, allowing defenses to rotate and reset. Athletically Strawther lacked the burst, speed, strength, and vertical to create scoring windows on his own with consistency. His athleticism didn’t squander the serviceability of his role, but it did focalize his ceiling and future scalability. So while he has posted positive overall production on-ball, he didn’t distort defenses to the point where he could be utilized as a secondary ball-handler.
His athletic deficiencies expanded beyond advantage creation. Strawther’s biggest critique was his defense. Despite his good efforts, Strawther was a subpar defender both statistically and visually. The screen navigation, lateral movement, recovery, contests, off-ball awareness, switching, defensive playmaking, nothing quite pointed to Strawther having the tools nor talent of being a neutral defender at the next level.
Nevertheless, Strawther was regarded as a first-round prospect. And after trading their 2024 first-round pick, and 2023 second round pick to get back into the first round, the Nuggets selected Strawther with the 29th pick.
In terms of fit and development, Denver is a near perfect setting for Strawther. Rarely will he see the floor this season, but the role he’ll play is crystal clear. He won’t be expected to magically become a positive defender while he’s on the floor, but instead be called to maximize his talent as a spot-up shooter. With Peyton Watson and Christian Braun alongside Strawther, the Nuggets are eyeing to build a dynamic yet resilient rotation off the bench that blends well with their primary engine, Nikola Jokic.
Off-screens, the Nuggets run down screens to provide Michael Porter Jr open threes above the break. With the ball-handler above the break, Jokic sets the down screen on the weakside elbow, and Porter lifts from the short corner to the wing or top of the key. Off the catch, Porter has the option of shooting the three or driving to the basket. It’s a simple offense that gives one the best shooters in the league a clean look from three. When the Nuggets ran parallel down screen actions for Strawther in the preseason, he fit like a glove. With Strawther being the better ball-handler than MPJ, he can take those down screen concepts a step further by punishing defenders that go over top of the screen. Strawther can stampede the catch into his floater, or curl off the screen, forcing the screen defender to help, and dishing off to Jokic.
On spot-ups in the halfcourt, as the designated shooter, MPJ is typically “an extra pass” away. Something as simple as a Jamal Murray kickout to the wing, the defense rotates to help, and the wing player makes the extra pass to an open MPJ in the corner. The Nuggets also run spread pnr’s with MPJ on the strong side corner. As Jokic gets the ball off the roll, MPJs defender is supposed to tag, but Jokic always punishes the help, and MPJ gets another open look from three. These concepts are perfect for Strawther. It’s the type of system that he can fit into immediately.
Defensively Denver will always look to assign Strawther to the opponents worst scorer. That means defending off-ball, containing corner threes and baseline drives off the catch. When Nuggets are switching ball-screens, Strawther will likely be targeted by the ball-handler (if not DeAndre Jordan). Improving screen navigation overall off-ball awareness is integral to ensuring his offensive production isn’t null and void.
Despite his archetype as a shooting wing, there’s certainly potential there as a tertiary playmaker. Strawther was not a connector at Gonzaga, and his shot profile encourages play-finishing over making the extra pass. He can, however, operate a PnR. More broadly, Strawther has flashed positive advantage perception operating off a screen, whether it’s a PnR or DHO. Factoring system, personnel, and increased spacing in the league, there's a great opportunity for Strawther to improve his court processing as a ball-handler. Not only will he become more valuable as a player, but the Nuggets offense can evolve into further dominance with a perimeter threat who can make basic, second-level reads. In preseason, Strawther only had 5 total assists, but each of them were encouraging. Especially his passes to the roll-man out the PnR.
While Strawther may not be a multi-dimensional player right away, his role as a specialized shooter and potential growth as a playmaker fit well within the Nuggets' plans. With time and development, he could play a vital role in the team's success.