The Inevitable Rise of Patrick Williams

The Next Step for the Chicago Wing

Initially proclaimed a class where the dreams of tanking teams went to die, the 2020 NBA draft class has pushed out a bunch of incredible players. Lamelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Desmond Bane, and Jaden McDaniels have all carved out niches where they provide high-quality or even star-level impact. The variance of the class impacted by the presence of COVID-19, and the perceived lack of high-end talent led to an exceeding amount of “ duds” as well though. Toolsy players with anchoring flaws ( Poku, Wiseman, Topin, and Hampton ) and low-usage second unit connector types ( Okoro, Deni ) alike, were overdrafted.

Somewhere in the middle, lies Patrick Williams. The fourth overall pick has certainly not reached the all-star status that comes along with his draft slot, but also has shown too much two-way utilization to be forever labeled a low-diet bench piece. The  6’8 wing, with a 7-foot wingspan, flashed in his rookie year before having his growth stunted during his 2nd season by a torn ligament in his left wrist. In his 3rd year, Williams continued to build on his rapid rise since his freshman year at Florida State, with 13-5-2-1-1 p/36 on 58 TS% (46/42/87 splits) - but there's even more to his  game.

A Forward who can dribble/pass/shoot plus bang with bigs, provide value off ball as an event creator ,and protect the rim secondarily allows for profusion in lineup configuration. That's what Aaron Gordon ( another former 4th pick ) did at age 27 for the NBA Champion Denver Nuggets, and that's what Patrick Williams will do for a contender sooner or later. 

The Championship Forward

It's becoming drastically clear that 4’s are important and distinctive pieces in what NBA teams want to do. If you want to know what a team's plans are, take a look at their 4.” Let's go 5-out! “ , well you need a championship  4. “ Let’s switch every ball screen 1-4” , well you need a championship 4. If you wanna guard any of Kevin Durant , Lebron James , Jayson Tatum , Jimmy Butler , or Kawhi Leonard- you need a championship 4. Spacing, switching, and cross-matching all start with the type of two-way load your 4 can handle. 

Last 10 powerforwards of title teams: 

2014: Boris Diaw 

2015: Draymond Green 

2016: Kevin Love 

2017/18: Draymond Green

2019: Pascal Siakam

2020: Anthony Davis 

2021: Giannis 

2022: Draymond Green

2023: Aaron Gordon 

There isn't really a clear definition for what a Championship 4 is, but when you see it you know it. Throughout the recent draft cycle, all you heard 4’s talk about was just how versatile they are, in part because if they weren't they wouldn't get drafted were they did. A good forward is so valuable because it's equally  hard to find (+ size , tools, shooting, handling , the defense, the smarts) as hard to play. Giving up on Patrick Williams is half witted, because he has all these tools - starting with his defense. 

Williams is a havoc defender full on through , but he manages to leverage aggression without making mistakes. It’s rare a 21-year-old wing has a 4.4 stock% without even fouling twice a game , he’s also not really gambling or taking himself out of position consistently. Williams has great short quarters explosion for his size , and gets off the ground quickly. Below you’ll notice Williams covering ground from the corner before opening his hips , planting that front foot , and exploding off 2 feet for the block on a Kyrie back cut. 

Here you’ll see Williams close an initial driving lane with an early rotation , before Buddy passes to corner off a weak side flare. Williams again makes a timely rim rotation , before mid-air contorting his body to create the angle on the block. 

Williams is able to work within chaos extremely well defensively. Like here, off an offensive rebound , Williams does a good job denying the back cut , before quickly recognizing where the Sengun pass is going and loading up for the block.

Below , Williams knows this is a Spain set-up so he calls for Ayo to switch. Williams denies the lay-down to Plumlee after the switch ,and the original action is blow up , but Lavine gets lost weakside so Pat has to cover up for him at the rim.    

Williams hands are sublime , and he uses them extremely well. The front is very good here , and he does a great job of high pouting and getting a hand on it. Unfortunately the ball lands right in Giannis’ hand after the tip , but watch how much ground horizontally Williams covers on this leap for the block. 

Williams’ hands show up in driving gaps as well , where he’s able to lurk and pounce on unsuspecting drivers with digs.

In semi-transition Jaylen Brown is attempting to push , so he puts his head down off the in-between dribble. Williams, knowing Brown won’t attack the passing angle helps off Al Horford , does a good job timing his jump with JB’s to get the block.

Below the Heat ironically go with “ Miami “ action , with Caleb Martin Ghosting a weakside flare. Williams stays with Martin , recognizes the passing angle to the roller , and his anticipation allows him come out of this with a steal.

As a man defender Patrick Williams does a great job of using his hip flexibility , length , and strength to wall off drivers. Below you’ll see Tatum attempt a half spin to get Williams to open up his hips before getting back left with a R to L crossover , but Williams is able to quickly flip his hips and beat Tatum to his spot. He predicts where Tatum is going on the fadeaway here , and his contest point leads to a near air-ball.

Here against the other “ Jay “ , he does a great job jabbing that inside hand inside Jaylen’s body and funneling him into the help. Jaylen attempts to beat Williams’ arm with his off-hand , but was unable to do so as Williams kept his left hand connected.

Below Williams digs on the initial drive forcing a kickout to Brandon Ingram who attacks Williams on the closeout. Williams is able to flip his hips quickly enough to stay with Ingram , and then times his plant at the nail with Ingram which allows him to load up for the contest.

For his size Pat has very impressive footwork as a screen navigator , avoiding bodies and getting back in the picture. Below you’ll see him aptly navigate this screen , and once he gets back in the picture blend his stride lengths with that of Tatum’s forcing the wing into a running

Here the Pelicans go “ Miami “ with Zion , and Williams is able to quickly go under these screens with precise footwork. Williams gets that back foot down to generate a base , and is able to stone wall the gigantic Zion Williamson on a drive.

Williams’ upper body strength and length becomes valuable as a post defender , which inflates his use as a switch defender. Uses his chest , and lower body base allow him to wall off back downs.

Williams defended nearly 5 on-ball possessions per game per synergy ( PNR handler , Isolation , Post-up ) , and allowed a pebbly 0.85 points per possession. For comparison , Jrue Holiday defended nearly 10 on-ball possessions , allowing 0.87 points per possession. This becomes even more impressive when you contextualize for the fact that per Bball Index , he ranked in the 97th percentile in matchup difficulty.

While Williams is fairly athletic , it’s not like he has a +9 WS or 45 inch Vert , so his rim protection chops are limited to a secondary weakside role. Despite this a legit on-ball wing stopper who can provide value off-ball as a rim protector and nail defender , that also rarely fouls is super valuable.

What Can he do on Offense ?

Offensively one can get legitimately confused with Williams , because his profile would suggest more success than he’s currently experiencing. Williams ended the season at 57.6 TS%, which is not aligned at all with what’s expected given the general shooting slash line (46/42/87) and attempt rate numbers. There has to be a place where efficiency points are bleeding , and digging deeper we can see that it’s in the lack of “easy bucket “volume: 16.1% transition frequency , 6.5% putback frequency, 7.3% cut frequency.

Shooting is probably the key offensive skill here at least statistically due to the percentages , but there’s definitely some realistic changes that have to be made. Well balanced feet, shoulder width apart, with solid hip bend. It’s a 1.5 motion shot from the right hip to a high release point , with a relatively evident dip. The percentages are really good , but the shot quality has also been really good with teams still gapping off him. The speed of his release is somewhat an issue , and it’s a big part of why 59% of his c&s attempts are unguarded.

This one’s kinda on the border of movement three , where Patrick is able to get a bit of a runway into the 3 pointer. The pre-shot preparation here shines , as he sets his base extremely quick and fires.

Williams shot an impressive 43% on c&s threes this year despite the funky release , but where it really hinders him is as an off-the-dribble shotmaker. The energy transfer on a shot like here from the knees to the hips isn’t particularly clean , and his balance is quite bad here leading to a miss.

On the other hand when Williams is able to create space and has the freedom to set his feet , he’s able to knock down these midrange jumpers with some success. He shot a respectable 43.2% on his midrange dribble jumpers per synergy , and his continued gains in terms of core flexibility should aid that.

From deep , where clean power generation becomes even more key , he’s struggled. He’s only shooting 31.5% on dribble jumper 3’s , a far cry relative to his midrange proficiency. The level of valgus collapse he has on these jumpers is concerning , because it’s implicative of bad energy transfer in the hip. In Williams’ defense he had a growth spurt growing up , and having tight hips is often a product of being a newly giant. He’s still growing comfort in his own body, gaining more flexibility , and smoothing out his energy transfer from move to move.

Williams’ finishing is truly his biggest issue , because it’s one that’s not on a course correction. Williams flexibility on drives , while improved , still hurt him as he tries to out leverage defenders. This coupled with lack of vertical explosion , and good not elite touch around the rim led to a 220+ pound 6’8 forward that finishes in the 31st percentile around the rim.

The next horizon

To offset his weaknesses vertically and as a handler , Williams needs a peripheral usage breakdown that pads his rim volume. He has to get a good volume of backcuts , put-backs , and transition leakouts to counterpoise the rim efficiency with volume to produce better overall efficiency. These play types aren’t really available with how often Chicago’s primary is iso’ing , and the lack of movement in their offensive system - but it may be a Available elsewhere.

Speaking of usage allocation the Bulls certainly don’t have any in PNR to give to Williams. Williams is a big wing who’s showcased handling , and passing chops but never in conjunction. Meaning Chicago has found it impossible to see if the handling reps against closeouts , and his willingness as an extra-passer correlate towards a second side handler role.

Chicago has never thought , “ he’s good at this “:

“ and he’s also good at this “ :

“ maybe … just maybe … let’s see if he’s good at this ?”:

Williams has the ability to run secondary PNR at an NBA level pretty likely , especially off a motion or as an empty side handler. He’s had many good reads for the smaller creation burden he’s been handed as a Bull , and expanding this utilization as a passer could really open up more lineup versatility.

Importantly , time is luxury of Williams , that the Bulls don’t have. Patrick Is still younger than the likes of Jalen Williams , Tari Eason , Andrew Nemhard , and Ochai Agbaji - guys who’ve recently finished their rookie year. It’s assumed because he’s a 3rd year player he’s closer to his ceiling than others , but he’s still simultaneously young and drastically physically improving. 

There’s no expectations for Patrick to ever be the core piece for an offense , therefore the leap from a 18 ft pull-up jumper to a 12 ft one is a pretty big one. More importantly the leap from extra passes out of spot ups or transition passes against unset defenses to second side decision making is a huge one. Williams is quite capable of making either of these jumps , and making both could make him a world class complementary piece.

While the Bulls window is quickly shutting , Williams window for success has just opened. He’s a 21-year-old big wing , with two-way utility, and a scalable arsenal - he’s worth betting on.