The Scintillating Scoring Arsenal of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
As it currently stands, the Oklahoma City Thunder are positioned towards being (arguably) the most promising ‘younger team’ in the NBA. Since departure(s) through trade(s) of past stars such as Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Chris Paul, the Thunder have collected quite the haul of draft picks. Part of the usage of such has included the addition of talent & rounding out of a roster roster with core/depth pieces (eg. Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace).
With that said, the one player in mind who ‘officially’ commenced OKC’s “youth movement” - and who seems to be shifting it from ‘rebuild’ to ‘reload’ - is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Kentucky Combo-Guard, and formerly a L.A. Clipper (who was traded to Oklahoma City in a gargantuan package for Paul George), has blossomed into one of the NBA’s best players and very arguably the best shooting guard in the league. While improvements are still expected at an individual and team level, Shai has certainly come a long way in being the unequivocal first option and primary creator for Oklahoma City on their journey from an early lottery team into one hoping to make the playoffs. So with all of this promise and hype in mind, how exactly has Shai put himself in a position to skyrocket as a player and hold such a responsibility?
When looking at his offensive approach, the meat and potatoes of Shai’s value comes from an impressive volume scoring body of work. Across the 2022-23 season, his scoring rate of 31.4 Points Per Game was good for fourth in the league. A very impressive mark, Shai’s scoring exploit was done so rather efficiently - depicted through a True Shooting percentage of 62.6 (good for 4.5 percent above the league average value). In a league where ‘zigging’ could represent year-over-year, yet incremental, scoring efficiency increases due to an increased focus on 3-pointers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s own scoring approach could be seen as ‘zagging’. Much of his scoring is done inside the arc, with a 12.2% 3-point attempt rate (an astounding 26.5% under the league average in this measure). While a primary 2-point shot diet with notable mid-range frequency might not be the best formula towards optimizing scoring efficacy, it can certainly work for the right players’ with the right toolkit(s). Shai is certainly one of those players. When looking at his 2-point scoring production - a whopping 80.5% of his field goal attempts came inside of 16 feet with a distribution as follows:
0-3 Feet: 28.3% of shots (67.8 FG%)
3-10 Feet: 27.6% of shots (43.8 FG%)
10-16 Feet: 24.6% of shots (51.2 FG%)
A robust ability to get to multiple spots on the floor, enabled by Shai’s functional athleticism and crafty (yet calculated) approach to score makes him one of the most unique cases in the league when it comes to operating around the nail or getting to the paint. While not an ‘A-tier’ athlete with regards to his explosiveness and downhill burst (eg. first and second step, vertical jump), Shai’s physical profile consists of a few mitigants which help him excel as one of the best guard finishers and one of the best in the league at calling his own number at the rim. To start, Shai’s length for a ‘combo-guard’ (serving as either a de-facto 1 or 2 on a court) is excellent - with a ~6’6” height and +5-6 or so inch wing-span. The aforementioned length is complemented by (1) rather quick strides, (2) semblances of ambidexterity, (3) a fluid and disciplined ability to handle the basketball, and (4) [his most undermentioned attribute] potent footwork as a means of acceleration/deceleration. When thinking of this complete package of on-court basketball abilities, all of them coming together aligns with the tale told on film and statistically - that Shai is an elite interior, at-the-rim, scorer. The fun certainly doesn’t end there, however. When using the first three of the four micro basketball abilities as a foundation and the fourth one as an ultimatum, Shai has the ability and production as one of the top mid-range scorers in the entire NBA. On ‘pull-up 2 point jump-shots’ (using the classification laid out on Synergy Sports, as well as the corresponding numbers) - Shai was able to shoot 49.5% from the field on a pretty prevalent rate: 473 shots of this kind taken throughout 68 games of play. The ‘chess match’ approach towards scoring inside the arc and consistently putting pressure on a defense leads itself to another major value proposition for Shai’s scoring production: an obscenely high free-throw rate of .535 which is double that of the league’s average value. The various moves displayed in a half-court, towards the basket context coupled with athletically-driven tricks have made Shai no stranger to contact and plenty of fouls - whether on the floor or in the act of shooting. On a whopping 10.9 Free-throw attempts per game, he was able to convert them at a 90.1% clip.
Whether it is the mid-range or rim (with the same trend holding onto all scoring ranges from the floor, really), Shai has one of the highest on-ball scoring proportions - relative to total shots taken - giving him an excellent track record as a player comfortable creating his own shot while facing various defensive coverages.
This is closely in-line with how much time on a per-game basis which Shai spends on the ball: 6.8 minutes per game with a total of 73.1 touches. Despite not having the most playmaking responsibilities or not quite being in that ball-park when compared to other heavy on-ball players, Shai’s usage with the rock in his hands checks out with his more prominent preferences as a scorer. For example, his favorite play-types to score with (once again, as courtesy of Synergy Sports) are as a ‘Pick and Roll Ball Handler’ and ‘Isolation’. In the former, he grades out in the 83rd percentile across all players in efficiency (1.021 Points Per Possession) alongside being in the 71st percentile in terms of play-type frequency, Repeating the same trend for his ‘Iso game’, Shai grades out in the 79th percentile while garnering 1.057 ‘PPP’ in spite of a sky-high 98th percentile frequency.
All of this goes to show: No matter what approach is taken and whether the data itself and/or a film deep-dive is drawn from - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comes out as one of the most impressive and entertaining scorers across all of the NBA. As he progresses into one who is reinforcing his place amongst the league’s best rather than breaking out to get a glimpse of what being at that caliber pertains, adding more counters and go-to-plays (in his case, a more robust off-ball shooting arsenal and more cuts/hand-offs/give-and-go’s) is vital. This is especially the case as OKC adds more talent and some of his running mates become more comfortable as on-ball creators. Being able to add value and play without the ball becomes a must. There are some very encouraging signs he can do so already and could improve on this (from a standpoint of frequency, mainly) down the line. As it currently stands however, the holistic scoring punch Shai packs has been nothing short of impressive to see develop in his 5 years as an NBA player.